ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF GREG HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT DEPICTS A SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTI-CYCLONE SITUATED OVER HURRICANE FERNANDA GENERATING 20 TO 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ALONG GREG'S PATH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR IS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISPLACED CONVECTION HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS WELL. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM AFWA AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT STRENGTHENS GREG TO A HURRICANE...IN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE NOW INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...TO 60 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 5. SHIPS DOES INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS GENEROUS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GRADUALLY INCREASING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 2....MAINTAINING 65 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/5. LOW-MID LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE UKMET/NOGAPS AND THE GFDL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE ERRONEOUS BINARY INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER LOW TO THE EAST OF GREG. THEREFORE...CONU AND THE GUNA WHICH INCLUDE THE GFS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THE FORECAST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.6N 113.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.6N 114.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 114.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 14.3N 115.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 14.1N 116.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 14.1N 119.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 14.0N 122.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 13-Aug-2005 03:10:10 UTC