ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 50 KT WIND SPEEDS IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ASSUMING THESE VALUES WERE ATTENUATED BY RAIN...60 KT SEEMS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE INTENSITY. SINCE THE STORM IS MOVING SOUTH OF WEST AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE DOING SO FOR SOME TIME...IT WILL NOT ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE INCREASED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD AHEAD OF FERNANDA SUGGESTS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENING RATE IS A LITTLE LESS THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 240/8. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL REGIME IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE DONE USING THE QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.2N 130.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 17.7N 131.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 17.2N 133.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.2N 136.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 140.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 147.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 20:40:13 UTC