ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE IS JUST ABOUT TO PASS OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER... UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER FERNANDA... AND WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL SINCE THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FERNANDA A HURRICANE THROUGH 12 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FOUR DAYS... AND OVERALL IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM TRMM... SSMI... AND AMSU EARLIER TODAY INDICATE THAT FERNANDA TOOK A JOG TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS... BUT THE SMOOTHED MOTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN 300/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CENTERED NEAR 25N130W... BUT THE RIDGE IS WEAKER DUE NORTH OF FERNANDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO... UNTIL THE RIDGE FORCES A WEAKENING FERNANDA ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. THE OUTLYING NOGAPS SOLUTION THAT TAKES FERNANDA SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IS DISCOUNTED... SINCE THAT MODEL INITIALIZED THE RIDGE TOO FAR TO THE WEST... RESULTING IN TOO MUCH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS AS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.8N 122.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 123.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 18.9N 124.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 126.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 127.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 18.5N 134.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 03:10:09 UTC