ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005 FERNANDA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES AND AN INFRARED WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY SHOWING UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CDO FEATURE. A 0651Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVELS. BASED ON THE TRMM OVERPASS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL MAINLY THE FORWARD SPEED. THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE OVERDEVELOPING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO THE EAST OF FERNANDA...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THAT SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL POSITION BEING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FERNANDA MAY BE UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OVERALL SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST A NORMAL 20 KT...OR 1 DVORAK T-NUMBER...PER 24 HOURS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT HOURS OR SO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY 36 HOURS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER A GRADUALLY COOLER WATER WITH SSTS OF 24-26C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 15.6N 118.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 16.0N 119.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.4N 121.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 18.2N 125.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Aug-2005 15:10:09 UTC