ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 SATELLITE ANIMATION AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER...CONFIRMED BY THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 AND 30 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10. DORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE LOW/MID STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BAM MODELS...NHC/91 STATISTICAL MODEL...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN DEPRESSION STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 18.6N 106.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.8N 107.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 19.2N 111.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.3N 113.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/0000Z 19.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0000Z 19.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 06-Jul-2005 03:10:04 UTC