ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MASS OF COLD CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -85C...WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ACAPULCO SHOWING THE CENTER ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/6. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST AT ALMOST ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE BIGGEST SHORT-TERM QUESTION IS HOW FAR WILL THE CENTER BE FROM SHORE...AS ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CYCLONE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO SLOW OR STOP DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CENTER WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND CALLS FOR 55 KT WINDS IN 36 KT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAT THE 55-60 KT FORECAST BY SHIPS AND THE 60-65 KT FORECAST BY THE GFDL. AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 15.4N 100.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 17.7N 102.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 04-Jul-2005 09:25:04 UTC