ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005 CALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...NEAR 11 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO A CONTINUED MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN...BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...IN LINE WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PROSPECT FOR RESTRENGTHENING SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER A DAY OR SO WHEN CALVIN TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO IS DISCONTINUED...AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE BEING TERMINATED. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.1N 104.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 16.3N 105.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 16.6N 107.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.8N 109.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 111.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 01/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1200Z 17.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jun-2005 14:40:03 UTC