ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS AT THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...I HAVE OPTED NOT TO UPGRADE THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SO WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING BY THAT TIME. MY BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION...285/11...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WITH DECELERATION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW. BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY FASTER INITIAL MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.5N 104.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.9N 106.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 112.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Jun-2005 08:40:02 UTC