ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHED EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. RECENT IMAGES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM. ADRIAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST...IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME TOO STRONG. ADRIAN'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED WHEN IT CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL NOT FAVOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. IF IT SURVIVES...THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION...065/07...RATHER UNCERTAIN. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 11.2N 92.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 11.9N 91.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 13.1N 89.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 14.3N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0000Z 15.8N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 26.0N 68.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 17-Nov-2005 17:25:24 UTC