ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005 THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS WRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE INTENSIFYING CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED IN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 0852Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWING A FEW 50-KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTH... AND A 986.5 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 62556 LOCATED ABOUT 50 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 23/16Z. THAT BUOY PRESSURE ALSO MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE 23/02Z PRESSURE OF 984.4 MB FROM BUOY 13534 WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE 50-KT INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 165/08 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DELTA BOTTOMING OUT IN LATITUDE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE MAN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS WHETHER DELTA TURNS EAST OR WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH. I HAVE OPTED TO TURN THE TRACK COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTH... GIVEN THAT DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN SPEED TO... BUT IS RIGHT OF... THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 850-200 MB VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DELTA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 50 KT DOWN TO 22 KT IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DELTA IS SHALLOWER THAN CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES... LESS SHEAR IS SUGGESTED BY UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AT 300 MB...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-20 KT LESS THAN AT 200 MB. ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS DELTA MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS OF 25.5C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 25.9N 40.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 39.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 39.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 39.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 39.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Nov-2005 20:25:21 UTC