ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR WILMA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR DATA...AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...INDICATE WINDS AT 850 MB OF ABOUT 120-125 KT IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THESE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO NOW ASSUME THESE WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 100 KT AT THE OCEAN SURFACE. IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS RESTRENGTHENING WAS SIMPLY DUE TO REDUCTION OF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ONCE THE EYEWALL EMERGED OVER WATER...OR IF THE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL STRENGTHENED SOME TIME AFTER REACHING THE ATLANTIC...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF STREAM. BOTH FACTORS LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE. THE INTENSITY FORECASTS VALID AT 12 AND 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE. NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1830Z 28.1N 78.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 30.3N 75.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 42.1N 61.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/1200Z 44.9N 55.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/1200Z 46.5N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/1200Z 47.5N 36.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/1200Z 49.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Oct-2005 19:25:13 UTC