ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0850Z INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STRONGER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST ALONE...WITH MANY WIND VECTORS GREATER THAN HURRICANE FORCE. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAKING MARIA A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...AND ALSO FOR GREATLY EXPANDING THE WIND RADII IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TRUE REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A TROUGH INTERACTION...OR IF MARIA HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY EVENT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS SHEARING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM MARIA... POSSIBLY AIDING THE GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM. MARIA IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IMMINENT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/12 WITH A SHORTER TERM MOTION CLOSER TO 045/14. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER SINCE THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 36.0N 50.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 36.8N 49.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 38.2N 47.4W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0000Z 39.8N 45.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1200Z 46.0N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 51.5N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 58.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Sep-2005 14:55:08 UTC