ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE. DUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THERAFTER...AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NOAA BUOY 41041. THE DATA FROM THE BUOY WILL GIVE US A BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE OR IF EXISTS AT ALL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.3N 44.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 46.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 47.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 48.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 49.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 52.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 55.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 13-Aug-2005 20:25:06 UTC