000 ABNT30 KNHC 011149 TWSAT MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2004 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...SUMMARY OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR SEPTEMBER 2004... NOTE...MANY OF THE ESTIMATES OF WIND SPEEDS...DEATHS...AND DAMAGES CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...PENDING A POST-ANALYSIS OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA. FIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING SEPTEMBER. ALSO...HURRICANE FRANCES...WHICH FORMED IN AUGUST...HIT FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. FRANCES FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ON 24 AUGUST. MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT DAY AND A HURRICANE ON 26 AUGUST WHILE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. STEADILY STRENGTHENING...FRANCES TURNED WESTWARD ON 30 AUGUST. FRANCES PASSED ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WITH WINDS OF 140 MPH ON 31 AUGUST...THEN IT TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON 1 SEPTEMBER. THIS BROUGHT THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON 2 SEPTEMBER WITH WINDS OF 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FRANCES TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT PASSED OVER SAN SALVADOR ISLAND LATER THAT DAY. IT MOVED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON 3-4 SEPTEMBER WHILE WEAKENING TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF FRANCES REACHED THE FLROIDA EAST COAST NEAR SEWALL'S POINT EARLY ON 5 SEPTEMBER...THEN CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLOIRDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY ON 6 SEPTEMBER. FRANCES WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER FLORIDA...AND IT WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MADE A FINAL LANDFALL NEAR ST. MARKS FLORIDA LATER THAT DAY. FRANCES MOVED GENERALLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON 9 SEPTEMBER. SO FAR...FRANCES IS BELIEVED TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR 23 DEATHS. IT LEFT A BROAD TRAIL OF DAMAGE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IVAN WAS A CLASSICAL LONG-LIVED CAPE VERDE HURRICANE THAT MADE TWO LANDFALLS ALONG THE U.S. COAST AND REACHED CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH THREE TIMES. IVAN DEVELOPED FROM A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON 31 AUGUST. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY STRENGTHENED AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 2 SEPTEMBER...A TROPICAL STORM ON THE 3RD...A HURRICANE EARLY ON THE 5TH...AND A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THAT SAME DAY. IVAN MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PASSED OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE IT CAUSED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE...ESPECIALLY ON GRANADA. IVAN THEN MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA PASSING JUST NORTH OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. IVAN REACHED RARE CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER AS IT MOVED TOWARD THE ISLAND NATION OF JAMAICA. AS IVAN APPROACHED JAMAICA...IT WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY AS THE CENTER MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. AFTER PASSING JAMAICA...IVAN BRIEFLY REGAINED CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON 11 SEPTEMBER WHEN THE HURRICANE WAS SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ONCE AGAIN...IVAN INFLICTED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE...THIS TIME ON GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AS THE HURRICANE HEADED TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. IVAN REMAINED AT CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH UNTIL EARLY ON 12 SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...BY EARLY ON 13 SEPTEMBER...IVAN ONCE AGAIN BECAME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE FOR THE THIRD AND FINAL TIME. WESTERN CUBA WAS SPARED THE BRUNT OF HURRICANE IVAN AS THE SMALL EYE MOVED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INSTEAD. FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IVAN MOVED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY WEAKENED UNTIL IT MADE ITS FIRST U.S. LANDFALL NEAR GULF SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE EARLY ON 16 SEPTEMBER. AFTER LANDFALL...IVAN GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WHILE MAKING A LARGE CLOCKWISE LOOP. IVAN MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EMERGED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON 19 SEPTEMBER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IVAN THEN MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND PASSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 21 SEPTEMBER. IVAN BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON THE 23RD AND MADE ITS 2ND LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ON THE 24TH. IVAN FINALLY DISSIPATED INLAND OVER EAST TEXAS LATER THAT DAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 29 AUGUST. THE WEATHER AREA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON 7 SEPTEMBER. EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER...THE DISTURBED AREA FORMED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION MOVED SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN TURNED SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 380 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. HURRICANE JEANNE ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 13 SEPTEMBER WHILE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. JEANNE MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THE 14TH WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. IT MOVED SLOWLY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THE 15TH AND THEN SLOWLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON THE 16TH AND 17TH...ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS AND WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. JEANNE BRIEFLY BECAME A HURRICANE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BUT THEN WEAKENED WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. JEANNE TURNED NORTHWARD ON THE 18TH AND MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM. JEANNE DRIFTED NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENED... BECOMING A HURRICANE ON THE 20TH WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. THE HURRICANE MOVED ALONG A SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE. THE LOOP WAS COMPLETED BY THE 23RD AND JEANNE BEGAN A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD. ON THE 25TH...JEANNES LARGE EYE DIRECTLY HIT ABACOS ISLAND AND THEN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE LARGE EYE MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR STUART AS A CATEGORY THREE. IT IS NOTABLE THAT HURRICANE FRANCES MADE LANDFALL NEAR THIS SAME LOCATION JUST 20 DAYS EARLIER AND ALSO MOVED OVER THE SAME ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. JEANNE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD. JEANNE WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION OVER GEORGIA AND RECURVED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES ON THE 28TH AND 29TH ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN. ON THE 30TH...JEANEE HAD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL FRONTAL LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE DEATH TOTALS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ARE NOT YET KNOWN BUT ESTIMATES FROM NEWS SOURCES RANGE TO OVER 2000 DEATHS IN HAITI FROM INLAND FLOODING. ONE DIRECT DEATH WAS REPORTED FROM PUERTO RICO AND TWO DIRECT DEATHS WERE REPORTED IN FLORIDA. THE U.S. DAMAGE ESTIMATE IS NOT YET AVAILABLE. HURRICANE KARL DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...BECOMING A DEPRESSION ABOUT 670 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON 16 SEPTEMBER. INITIALLY MOVING WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BECAME TROPICAL STORM KARL ON 17 SEPTEMBER. KARL THEN TURNED NOTHWESTWARD AS IT BECAME A HURRICANE THE NEXT DAY. KARL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ON 19-20 SEPTEMBER AS IT BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTIANED WINDS REACHED AN ESTIMATED 140 MPH ON 21 SEPTEMBER AS KARL TURNED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. KARL TURNED NORTHWARD ON 22 SEPTEMBER AND NORTHEASTWARD THE NEXT DAY WHILE SHOWING FLUCUATIONS IN STRENGTH. IT THEN TURNED NORTHWARD AND LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT 935 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ON 24 SEPTEMBER. TROPICAL STORM LISA DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...BECOMING A DEPRESSION ON 19 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 645 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT DAY. LISA MOVED WESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN INTERACTED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LISA FROM THE EAST. THE DISTURBANCE AND LISA LOOPED ABOUT EACH OTHER ON 22 AND 23 SEPTEMBER UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE WAS ABSORBED INTO LISA'S CIRCULATION. LISA THEN CONTINUED WESTWARD ON 24 SEPTEMBER BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MOVING SLOWLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...LISA INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY AND AT MONTH'S END HAD WINDS OF 70 MPH AND WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES. PRELIMINARY STATISTICS NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE (MPH) ($MILLIONS) ------------------------------------------------------------- H FRANCES 24 AUG - 9 SEP 145 23 N/A H IVAN 2 -24 SEP 165 90 N/A TD TEN 7 - 9 SEP 35 H JEANNE 13-29 SEP 120 2000+ N/A H KARL 16-24 SEP 140 TS LISA 19 SEP- 70 ------------------------------------------------------------- N/A = NOT YET AVAILABLE FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART/FRANKLIN/BEVEN/AVILA $$
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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Oct-2004 21:25:13 UTC