ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 ...FRANCES WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...OR FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 500 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY... AND ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM DEEFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF STUART. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED WELL INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH...MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE ENTIRE EYE OF THE HURRICANE INLAND BY SUNRISE TODAY. HOWEVER...IT MAY TAKE UP TO ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO REACH SOME PORTIONS OF THE MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTY COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...WEST PALM BEACH REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH HAVE ALSO RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES OVER GRAND BAHAMA IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...27.2 N... 80.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 08:52:40 UTC