| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm KAY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
 
ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES CONFIRM WHAT WAS SUSPECTED JUST AFTER
RELEASE OF THE MORNING ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS RELEASED...THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED FROM
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THAT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED...AND KAY IS NOW A SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH A FEW NEW
CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT ARE BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST...SHOWING NO CHANGE OVER
THE PERIOD...REFLECTS THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER KAY WILL
REGENERATE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KAY WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THIS WEATHER AREA HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 10-11 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND PRESUMES THAT KAY...IF IT
SURVIVES...WILL BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 15.2N 116.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.6N 118.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.7N 120.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.8N 121.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N 123.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 127.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 132.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN