ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2004 JAVIER MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF SAN IGNACIO. THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY HAD THE RIGHT IDEA.. KEEPING THE SYSTEM'S MOTION SLOW UNTIL LANDFALL AND ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION. THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JAVIER IS FILLED WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR OVER 24 HOURS. THEREFORE IT HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SOME TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FORCED CONVECTION OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THE REMNANT LOW OF JAVIER IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE MAIN DANGER WITH THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE INLAND FLOODING...SPREADING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THE FLOODING THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KWNH. FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 27.5N 112.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 12HR VT 20/0000Z 29.3N 111.8W 20 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 20/1200Z 31.5N 111.0W 20 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 14:44:56 UTC