ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004 JAVIER IS DEGENERATING INTO A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE PLUMMETING AS FAST AS THE DVORAK RULES ALLOW SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE QUIKSCAT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STORM HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 350/7. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN ACCELERATING JAVIER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SHIFT. THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL... A SCENARIO WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF THE MOTION STAYS SLOW AND CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN THIS EVENING. HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES FROM NCEP SHOW THAT JAVIER IS PARALLELING THE 26C ISOTHERM. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS INCREASING.... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION COULD FIRE TONIGHT... KEEPING JAVIER NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THIS CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE LANDFALL. REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY...JAVIER'S MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TOMORROW. FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 24.4N 113.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 25.9N 113.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 28.7N 113.0W 30 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ 36HR VT 20/0600Z 31.5N 112.4W 25 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING 48HR VT 20/1800Z 34.5N 111.5W 20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 20:44:49 UTC