ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE LAST VISIBLE ANIMATIONS FOR TODAY SHOWED A VERY CLEAR AND DISTINCT EYE. THE WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS ARE STILL PRESENT. ENHANCED BD INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT..DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 100 KTS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE JAVIER TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS WHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7 KT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TERM WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT AND THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THIS BRINGS THE FORECAST TRACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE BAJA PENISULA...BUT STILL PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME...A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AROUND THE 72 HOUR PERIOD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BEYOND DAY 3...JAVIER SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ULTIMATELY...WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST... AND IS BASED OFF OF THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 20.9N 111.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 21.7N 111.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 22.8N 112.8W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 23.8N 113.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 25.3N 114.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 31.6N 113.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 22/0000Z 34.1N 111.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 02:44:58 UTC