ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004 AN AFTERNOON TRMM PASS DEPICTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS REMAINED OPENED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. VISIBLE ANIMATION SUGGESTS A SMALL...CLOUD-FILLED EYE...AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY STABLE DRY AIR...FORCING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN THE WEAKENING THAT JAVIER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WIND RADII WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN DATA-T NUMBERS AND THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE TRMM PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED 115 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN A RAPID DECREASE AS JAVIER MOVES OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ARE STILL POSSIBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6...WITH AN EXPECTED GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BUILDING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IN 36 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE PERSISTANT STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE JAVIER TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUNS CONSENSUS...WHICH EXCLUDES THE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS...REMAINS THE BASIS OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.8N 109.2W 115 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 109.6W 105 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 110.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 21.8N 111.2W 95 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 22.9N 112.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 25.5N 114.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 20:45:58 UTC