ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004 RECENT IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF JAVIER HAS FILLED IN... WITH WARMER CLOUD TOPS IN THE SE QUADRANT. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 0000 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB KEEP JAVIER AT 127 KT...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 125 KT. HOWEVER...THAT MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE AREA. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY BE IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AS THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ASYMMETRICAL. JAVIER CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT THIS EVENING. CURRENT MOTION IS 335/4 BUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS...JAVIER SHOULD RESPOND BY GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CHANGE IN THE MODELS AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY PERIODS. AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THEY SUGGEST THAT A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL TURN JAVIER TOWARD THE NORTH TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH THIS TAKES JAVIER CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 5 DAYS...THE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THOSE LATITUDES SHOULD WEAKEN JAVIER WELL BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST...IF IT WERE TO FOLLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO EXCLUDES THE GFS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY BUILDING IN A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS KEEPS JAVIER WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. REASONING FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STATE OF JAVIER INDICATES SOME WEAKENING...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS WHY JAVIER SHOULD NOT RECOVER AND STRENGTHEN AGAIN BEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN SHIPS AT THE EARLIER FORECAST PERIOD...THEN COMES MORE IN LINE WITH IT AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY PERIODS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND AMSU WIND RADII GUIDANCE. FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.6N 108.1W 125 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.1N 108.5W 125 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 18.9N 109.2W 130 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 109.9W 130 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.6N 110.8W 120 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 22.4N 113.1W 90 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 24.8N 115.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 03:04:53 UTC