ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004 INFRARED AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED A PERSISTENT SMALL CDO LIKE FEATURE WITH SOME BANDING PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM AFWA. THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JAVIER BASED WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON THESE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOWER 285/9....BASICALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT ALL THE TRACK MODELS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AT VARYING SPEEDS AND THEN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY LEANS CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHWARD TURN PRESENTED BY THE CONSENSUS. WIND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS CURRENTLY INDICATE 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JAVIER. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST WITH JAVIER REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND LEVELLING OFF AT 75 KNOTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE INTENSIFICATION...BRINGING JAVIER TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 54-60 HOURS. FORECASTER COBB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 12.0N 98.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 12.3N 99.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 12.6N 101.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 13.1N 102.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 13.8N 103.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 15.8N 104.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W 75 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 14:34:24 UTC