ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF ISIS REMAINS AT 55 KTS BASED ON UW-CIMSS AND CSU-CIRA AMSU ALGORITHMS WHICH YIELD A CONSISTENT MINIMUM PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 992 MB AND AN INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB..AND AFWA YIELD A SOMEWHAT LOWER INTENSITY OF 45 KTS...HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KTS BASED ON THE CONSISTENT RESULTS FROM THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...BUT IT APPEARS STATIONARY. ISIS REMAINS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. SINCE ISIS HAS MOVED GENERALLY NORTHWARD...IT HAS TRACKED OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THIS HAS LIKELY KEPT CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...THE PROJECTED WEST AND SOUTHWEST TRACK OF ISIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES BACK INTO A BIT WARMER SST REGIME...BUT AT THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL ASSUME A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND UNTIL THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS. FORECASTER SISKO/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.7N 132.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 18.7N 132.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.7N 133.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 18.6N 133.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 18.4N 134.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.3N 134.7W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.2N 135.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 21/0600Z 18.1N 135.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 08:56:24 UTC