ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004 THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/5. ISIS IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND WILL BE DRIFTING ABOUT DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO. THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION HAS BROUGHT ISIS OVER COOLER WATER AND THIS IS LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE CURRENT WEAKENING. IF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CORRECT AND ISIS EVENTUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AND THAN SOUTHWEST IT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER COMEBACK BUT WE WILL ASSUME A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND UNTIL THAT HAPPENS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.6N 132.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.7N 132.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.7N 133.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.6N 133.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 18.4N 134.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.3N 134.7W 40 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 135.1W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 18.1N 135.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 02:35:06 UTC