ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 09 2004 BASED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...SO SOME RELOCATION IS NECESSARY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER BECAUSE OF THE REVISED INITIAL MOTION...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISIS IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT SINCE THE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST END OF A RAGGEDLY-SHAPED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE STORM AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 40 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...35 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARING WILL RELAX IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENTLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE OF ISIS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 17.0N 112.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 17.3N 113.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 18.0N 116.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 18.5N 118.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 18.9N 121.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 133.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 19.5N 140.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 09-Sep-2004 14:34:24 UTC