ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004 CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 4.5... AND 4.0 FROM AIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. HOWARD HAS MOVED OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS ENTRAINING DRYER STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE STRATUS LAYER CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET SOLUTION FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...WHICH GRADUALLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM...AND THEN CURVES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 23.5N 116.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 25.0N 116.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 26.4N 117.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 27.4N 117.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 27.7N 118.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 07/0600Z 27.8N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0600Z 28.1N 120.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0600Z 28.4N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Sep-2004 09:04:21 UTC