ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004 CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 5.0... AND 4.5 FROM AIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND THE LOSS OF THE EYE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXISTS ALONG THE TRACK OF HOWARD AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED. INITIAL MOTION IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS HOWARD APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED AT 12 KT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH LONGER-TERM MOTION NOW ON THE ORDER OF 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT. TRACK REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING STEERING FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF HOWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND THEREFORE MORE INFLUENCED BY LOWER-LEVEL STEERING. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DECREASES SPEED TO NEARLY STATIONARY BY 72 HOURS WITH ERRATIC MOTION INDICATED AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THEREFORE THE REMNANT LOW IS HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 21.4N 116.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 22.5N 116.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.8N 117.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 25.0N 118.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 119.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 120.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/1800Z 28.0N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Sep-2004 20:54:47 UTC