ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004 THE EYE OF FRANK IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON VISIBLE OR IR IMAGERY... THERE DO APPEAR TO BE TWO SMALL BANDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTER TO HELP IN ITS LOCATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE LOSS OF THE EYE SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE IS WEAKENING...THUS THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KNOTS...MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND ITS CONSTRAINTS ON WEAKENING STORMS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...ACCORDING TO SST ANALYSES THE CYCLONE IS NEARING THE 25C ISOTHERM AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRANK IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR PHOENIX CONTINUES TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD....AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT AS WELL. THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT OUT COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. EVEN IF THE RIDGING ALOFT IS DELAYED...THE WEAKENING STORM WILL EXHIBIT LESS CENTRAL CONVECTION IN 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE COOL SSTS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM THE WEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATION WITHIN 72 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE APPEARING BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE HURRICANE THAN SEEN ON PREVIOUS RUNS/DAYS. THE BAMM SUITE BASED ON THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD...BUT HAS TRENDED SOUTH FROM ITS SOLUTION EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGER SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IN THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST...THE SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE LARGER ENVELOPE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECASTER ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 21.3N 115.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.3N 116.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 23.1N 119.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.1N 121.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 22.4N 127.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 29/1800Z 21.9N 130.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 20:43:20 UTC