ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004 IR IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANK HAS BEEN DISPLAYING AN INTERMITTENT EYE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AT 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...ACCORDING TO SST ANALYSES IT HAS ALREADY CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING SHORTLY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE HAVE BEEN CHANGES IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TRACK EARLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE HEADING AS OF LATE. FRANK IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. IN THE SHORT TERM...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR YUMA ARIZONA AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE ERODED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANK TO MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A NEW RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WESTWARD. ALSO...SINCE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT IN AROUND 48 HOURS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE RATHER FAST...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ONLY THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE CORRECTLY INITIALIZED STRENGTHWISE. THE BAMM SUITE FROM THE GFS BRINGS THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD...WITH THE LBAR SHOWING THE CYCLONE IN EASTERN COLORADO AT 120 HOURS. THIS IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THIS PACKAGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGER SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IN THE ANALYSIS...THE DEPRESSION TO THE WEST SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY LARGER LOW CLOUD SHIELD/CIRCULATION THAN FRANK ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECASTER ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 20.9N 114.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 115.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 23.1N 117.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.4N 119.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 23.4N 121.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 23.1N 124.7W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 22.6N 127.7W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 22.2N 130.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 15:03:21 UTC