ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004 THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORM EARL CROSSED CENTRAL AMERICA ON 18 AUGUST AND HAS BEEN MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVED SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW A PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT COULD BE AN INDICATION OF INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE IMAGERY ARE SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...IT IS DECIDED TO ISSUE DEPRESSION ADVISORIES AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COLD WATER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH TRACK GUIDANCE AS A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT TEN DEGREES WEST OF THE DEPRESSION TENDS TO BE THE DOMINATING FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A NOT-TOO-FAST NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS FOLLOWING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL NHC91 MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.0N 110.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.1N 112.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.5N 113.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 115.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 117.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 23.5N 122.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 09:03:20 UTC