ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 19 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT TO REFLECT THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 280/11 AND A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS A 500 MB RIDGE REBUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT AT 120 HOURS. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN FIVE DAYS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.2N 134.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 12.8N 136.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 13.8N 138.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 14.9N 140.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 15.9N 142.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 149.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 154.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Aug-2004 20:43:22 UTC