ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED AND NOT WELL-ORGANIZED...AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS DO NOT DEPICT AN OBVIOUS CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALSO...DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO CAST SOME DOUBT ON THE EXISTENCE OF A DEFINITE SURFACE CIRCULATION. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH...THE SYSTEM MAY SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS CURRENT CONDITION...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS IF NOT SOONER. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT OBVIOUS...MY BEST GUESS IS THAT IT...OR THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM...IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. WITH LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH...A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 16.3N 116.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 16.3N 118.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 16.3N 120.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 16.4N 123.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 31/1800Z 16.5N 124.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 01/1800Z 16.7N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jul-2004 20:42:28 UTC