ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED JUL 28 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DARBY HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BANDING FEATURES. BECAUSE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. SINCE DARBY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THERE IS ONLY LESS THAN A DAY FOR DARBY TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEAKNESS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DARBY TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...AS DARBY WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST IN 4 AND 5 DAYS. DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS WHEN DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...AS WEAKENING BEGINS AND THE CYCLONE BECOMES SHALLOW...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO BAMM OR BAMS MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.2N 124.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W 90 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 128.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 132.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 137.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 20.0N 142.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jul-2004 20:32:27 UTC