ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN JUL 25 2004 ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON NUMEROUS UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON A 25/0228Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT...OR T2.0...FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/11. THIS MOTION AND THE INITIAL POSITION ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...PAST MOTION...AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT POSITION. THIS PLACES THE CENTER OF CELIA A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS...WHICH ARE UP INTO THE CONVECTION. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE DECOUPLES FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNA AND GUNS MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SURVIVES BEYOND WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING...IT WOULD MOVE OVER WARMER WATER THAT COULD LEAD TO THE REGENERATION OF CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE. THE SHALLOW BAM AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE REMNANT LOW TO NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN ABOUT 120 HOURS. UNLIKE THE PAST TWO NIGHTS AT THIS TIME...THE CONVECTION IS NOW ON THE WANE. INTERMITTENT BRIEF BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SUB-24C SST WATER FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE RESULT SHOULD BE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER...IF CELIA MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ...THEN COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT OCCUR. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 18.0N 132.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 18.2N 134.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 26/0600Z 18.2N 137.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 26/1800Z 18.2N 139.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0600Z 18.1N 142.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Jul-2004 08:22:25 UTC