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Hurricane CELIA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 24 2004
 
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT CELIA. THE CYCLONE IS DEFINED BY A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
CONVENTIONAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS AT
BEST A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION BUT THERE IS ONE VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED
TO 30 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE QUIKSCAT
PASS.  

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD 
CONTINUE WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 16.5N 127.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 129.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 130.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.8N 132.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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