ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004 THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. THE 77 KT ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...AND WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EMBEDDED DISTANCE. MOREOVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS WITH NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...AND NO APPARENT EYE. HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0206 UTC SHOWED A 65 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...TO 70 KT. CELIA SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. IN 2-3 DAYS CELIA WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT AROUND 6 KT...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL ADVISORY PACKAGES. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF CELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IN EARLIER RUNS...THE GFS MODEL HAS UNDER-INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THE OBJECTIVE VORTEX TRACKER IS UNABLE TO FOLLOW A CENTER. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN UNREALISTICALLY LARGE STORM IN THE INITIAL STATE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL...GFDN...AND U.K. MET OFFICE GUIDANCE...AND FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 16.5N 122.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.7N 123.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 124.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.3N 126.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 17.6N 127.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Jul-2004 08:32:24 UTC