ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED JUL 21 2004 ...CORRECTED TO ADD THE WORD LOW IN FIFTH SENTENCE BELOW... SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45 KT. APPARENTLY THE STORM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL FOR INTENSITY CHANGE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IMPEDING OUTFLOW IN THAT DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. AS HAS BEEN NOTED EARLIER...STABLE AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE IMPEDING INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE FROM THE BUOYANCY TERM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE. IF CELIA MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE TO THE NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN INDICATED HERE. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 290/7. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE RATHER SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE GFS INITIALIZES CELIA AS AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK PERTURBATION AND CONSEQUENTLY LOSES IT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THIS IS A TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 16.2N 119.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 17.1N 122.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 17.5N 124.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 17.8N 125.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 133.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Jul-2004 09:32:24 UTC