ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004 BLAS IS STRENGTHENING. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z CONTAINED 50 KT VECTORS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST RECENT 3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 50 KT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER AND DECREASING ELSEWHERE. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING BLAS TO JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT BLAS WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 24 HOURS AND BEGINS TO DECAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14. THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE IS CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BLAS...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z UKMET STILL FAVORS THIS SCENARIO AND CONSEQUENTLY IS MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS. CONSIDERING THAT THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY MAY STILL BE TOO STRONG WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GUNA DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON THE 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS...ALTHOUGH THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NOTED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE RADII MAY SOON BEGIN TO CONTRACT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 17.5N 109.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 18.9N 111.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 20.4N 113.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 21.4N 116.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 23.0N 121.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 18/0600Z 23.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Jul-2004 08:32:21 UTC