ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT JUL 03 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. SHIP PCER HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...REPORTING WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WITH A LOWEST REPORTED PRESSURE OF 1009.7 MB. THIS IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS. BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/10. THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD WEAKEN FROM HERE ON. SOME BURSTS OF CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 72 HR...SO THE THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS IN HANGING ON TO IT THAT LONG. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 17.4N 122.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/1800Z 17.4N 128.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Jul-2004 08:32:20 UTC