ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004 A BURSTING CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. DVORAK INTENSITY T NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC ARE THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 45 KNOTS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH STRENGTHENING SO THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS COOLER SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/06. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS UNDER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BECOMING STATIONARY AFTER 72 HOURS AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO AGREE MORE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.4N 110.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.1N 110.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 110.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 19.2N 110.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 19.3N 110.8W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC