ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI MAY 21 2004 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS EVENING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE TRACK MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A RATHER SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 5 DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. THE SHIP MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO MAXIMUM VALUE OF 42 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE GFDL SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS A MODEST INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 14.7N 108.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.4N 109.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.0N 110.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.1N 112.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:56 UTC