ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004 OTTO IS MAINTAINING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A MOSTLY-EXPOSED CIRCULATION. RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND THE WIND STRUCTURE IS BECOMING MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A UNANIMOUS 35 KT BUT I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THE TIME BEING. OTTO REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL REACH THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...OTTO DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OTTO IS LIKELY TO LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WELL BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTTO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/2. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC APPROACHING OTTO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO NUDGE OTTO ON AN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.6N 50.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 31.4N 50.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 31.0N 49.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 49.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 28.5N 46.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Dec-2004 02:43:50 UTC