ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...THE SAME RIDGE THAT IS MOVING KARL. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. BASED UPON THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THIS A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. TD THIRTEEN IS EXHIBITING VERY COLD TOP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND INTERMITTENTLY IN A BAND WITHIN 160 NM TO ITS NW. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0...JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOW FOLLOWING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED... THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS... ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. AFTER THIS TIME THE SHEAR INCREASES...ALTHOUGH...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.2N 34.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 13.5N 35.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 13.7N 37.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.9N 38.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 14.1N 39.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.8N 42.9W 55 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.3N 45.6W 55 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 48.6W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Sep-2004 03:03:30 UTC