ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004 CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE INTENSE AROUND KARL'S EYEWALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EYE BECOMING A BIT BETTER-DEFINED. HOWEVER A 1657 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THE EYEWALL WAS STILL OPEN SOUTH. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 105 KT. MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE STEADY OR DECREASING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KARL TO REINTENSIFY. SSTS ARE ALSO INCREASING UP TO NEAR 84F IN ITS PATH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CALLING FOR MAXIMUM INTENSITY NEAR THE CYCLONE'S RECURVATURE POINT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS UNDER DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AROUND 96 HOURS THEN FORMING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. KARL HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NW... NOW MOVING 305/10 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG ALONG 55W AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON RECURVATURE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AROUND 50W. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS. 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE ATLANTIC FORECASTER IN TAFB. FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.6N 47.1W 105 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.8N 48.2W 110 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.8N 49.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.1N 50.1W 120 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 27.0N 49.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 34.0N 45.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 43.0N 43.5W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 25/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 20-Sep-2004 21:03:59 UTC