ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004 KARL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLASSICAL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THREE-HOUR AVERAGE ODT'S ARE NEAR T6.3...120 KT...AGREEING WELL WITH TAFB'S SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T6.0. IN ADDITION... A 1707 UTC CIMSS/NESDIS AMSU PRESSURE ALGORITHM ESTIMATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 941 MB. THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE RAISED TO 115 KT AND THE PRESSURE IS SET TO 944 MB IN BETWEEN THE AMSU AND DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.. 290/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP RECURVATURE EAST OF 50W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER RANGES WHETHER KARL WILL BE ABSORBED BY A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OR REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE LATTER POSSIBILITY WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK POSSIBLE AT LONG RANGES IF THE ABSORPTION SCENARIO OCCURS. KARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE SHEAR. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL FOR THE CYCLONE. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT AND THE WIND SPEED FORECAST COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.0N 44.0W 115 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.6N 45.5W 120 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 47.2W 125 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 19.9N 48.3W 125 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 49.1W 125 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 48.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 35.0N 45.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 44.0N 40.5W 80 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 20:43:26 UTC