ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 KARL HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED. A 17/2148Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT KARL MAY POSSESS A VERY SMALL EYE...AND THIS WAS LATER SUPPORTED BY A 17/2317Z TRMM OVERPASS. WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA...I AM A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DESIGNATE KARL AS A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE TOPS BEGIN COOLING AGAIN...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. KARL APPEARS TO BE MAKING A LITTLE MORE OF A WESTWARD BEND...BUT IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. THE NHC 18Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AND HAS MADE A SLIGHT SWING TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE TIGHTLY PACKED...HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY WELL TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AND DID NOT PICK UP THE JOG TO THE RIGHT EARLIER TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SURROUNDING KARL...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WAS NOT BROUGHT AS FAR TO THE WEST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG RIDGING. THE RESULT IS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. KARL ALREADY HAS VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C...STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 96 HOURS IS EXPECTED... AND KARL COULD EVEN BECOME THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BY 72 HOURS. AFTER 96 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO INITIATE WEAKENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.2N 37.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 38.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.9N 40.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.9N 42.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 43.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 45.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 25.5N 47.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 31.0N 46.5W 95 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 02:53:38 UTC