ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KARL IS STRENGTHENING RATHER QUICKLY. THE SYSTEM HAS A CDO FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER AND A NICE BAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST SIDE INTO THE CDO. THERE IS SUPERB OUTFLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...THE SSTS AT THESE LATITUDES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES IN MID-SEPTEMBER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. AN OBJECTIVE ODT CALCULATED A 77 KT WIND SPEED. THE SUM OF THIS INFORMATION IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING THE SYSTEM UP TO 55 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. ALMOST NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS SHIPS WANT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE RATHER QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY IT TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST WEIGHTED IN THE EARLY GOING...THUS MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 11.5N 35.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 36.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.2N 38.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 40.6W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.7N 42.2W 95 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 16.2N 44.8W 105 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 19.3N 46.3W 115 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 47.0W 115 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 08:33:17 UTC