ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...T2.0 FROM SAB AND T2.5 FROM TAFB...ALONG WITH SHIP REPORTS SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND A STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. STEERING FOR THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS THAT SHOULD DEFLECT THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. THE BAMS...GFS... AND GFDL ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 11.4N 32.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 11.8N 34.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 12.1N 36.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 38.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 40.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 14.0N 42.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 44.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 45.0W 95 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 20:54:16 UTC