ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES AS A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER 200 NM AWAY AND SPREADING OVER THE AZORES. SINCE THE LOW LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SWIRL ARE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SUB 26C WATER. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE LOW CENTER HAS TURNED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A MOTION THAT WAS EXPECTED BUT NOT SO SOON. OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...ONLY THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO THE AZORES...BUT THEY APPARENTLY HAVEN'T NOTICED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY SHEARED OFF. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...OR IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM MET OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 35.8N 33.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.2N 33.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 10/1800Z 34.5N 32.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 11/0600Z 34.0N 31.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 11/1800Z 33.5N 30.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/1800Z...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 09-Sep-2004 20:43:00 UTC