ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004 THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS OF 94 KT AND 87 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THEY MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...969 MB. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER SINCE THE DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS OVER 20 KT WHEN IT HIT THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE CENTER OF THE EYE. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE...AND THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. WE SEE NO REASON WHY IVAN COULD NOT RESTRENGTHEN VERY SOON...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION...285/19...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY CURRENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU...HAS BEEN SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST TODAY...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...IN THE 4-5 DAY TIME FRAME...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN FRANCES...OR ITS REMNANTS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND IVAN. IF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA...IVAN COULD VEER TOWARD THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES COAST. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW A MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 11.6N 55.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 12.3N 58.1W 100 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 13.2N 61.5W 105 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 14.0N 64.4W 110 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 15.0N 67.4W 115 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 72.5W 120 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 20.0N 76.5W 80 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 11/1800Z 23.0N 80.0W 75 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 20:52:52 UTC